Arabists failed to read signs
Published in Brisbane Courier Mail, 3 March 2011
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DIDN’T SEE IT COMING: Middle East experts did not predict the uprisings sweeping the Arab world which began in Tunisia sparked by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi on December 17 and leading to the ousting of the country’s President.
WHAT differentiates the recent natural disasters sweeping across our region and the Jasmine Revolution that is sweeping across the Arab region?
The experts have proved to be fairly reliable predictors for the former, but useless for the latter.
During the past decade, so-called Arabist experts have dominated our TV screens, radio waves, opinion columns and bookstores with their specialised knowledge on the region and have been major consultants to governments throughout the “war on terror”.
They have been entrusted to shape our foreign policies and have propagated the simplistic notion of us (freedom lovers) versus them (fanatical tribes).
It is time for analysis of the Western Arabists and their agendas. If they place Israel in the centre as the only true democracy in the region, then their law of relativity would render Arab states as merely threats driven by Islamic fanatics. This is ironic, as the demonstrators do not have Islam and Israel on their lips or banners.
Of course, humans cannot be read and predicted as scientifically as nature, but there were many metaphorical weather patterns missed by Arabists.
When Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia on December 17, they could have read the high temperature and realised that this one match would ignite a bushfire that was more potent than oil wells.
His fate epitomised the frustration of so many others – a 26-year-old university graduate whose qualifications could not be used, so he resorted to selling fruit and was stopped by the police for not buying a permit. He could not afford the bribe and the local authority refused to hear his complaint.
Contrary to what the Arabists would have us believe, the anthem of the demonstrators was not a verse from the Koran. It was the verses of a rap song, Rais Lebled, by Tunisian rapper El General, that had become so popular it was adopted as the battle hymn of the Jasmine Revolution. The hits to download and share this song should have triggered curiosity as this was a cyclone gaining momentum.
Yet the power of the internet, Facebook and mobile phones was grossly overlooked. With more than half the Arab population aged under 30, these technologies enable instant organisation and mobilisation.
Even the expert advisers to the US Government did not see the digital “levee” was broken and an inland tsunami was imminent.
Trusting her advisers, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared “our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable”.
The refusal of the military to follow orders and use force against the demonstrators, especially in Egypt, should have been detected by the intelligence gatherers as a fault line between the army and the president.
Why this disturbing and dangerous disconnect between the Arabists and the Arabs? Perhaps because the experts were so busy looking for the next Islamic bogeyman, who might be a threat to Israeli security, that they had lost touch with the moderate majority.
Too busy searching for the next terrorist cell, but ignoring the tyrants who have often been quietly supported by the US Government.