US should leave Syria decision to UN
30 August 2013
Herald Sun
THE narrative is etched: despotic dictator poisons his own people under the nose of the UN weapons inspectors.
This is credible if one inhales all the pollen from the Arab Spring stereotypes of mad men crushing their people who crave to be a Western democracy.
Like Egypt’s Mubarak and Libya’s Gaddafi, Syria’s Assad was supposed to topple like a domino weeks after the Syrian inferno was ignited in March 2011. Despite being bombarded from all borders with mercenaries, weapons and finances, the Syrian Government still stands almost 30 months later.
In fact, it has been gaining ground from its armed opposition and jihadists. So why would it suddenly be so stupid to commit an act that is both genocidal and suicidal?
The answer may be that the narrative is a naive narrative and we need to clear the smoke by asking the right questions.
First, if US intelligence services overheard a Syrian Defence Ministry official “in panicked phone calls with the leader of a chemical weapons unit, demanding answers for a nerve agent strike”, why is a translated transcript not shared as “undeniable” evidence of the culpability of the Government or any rogue offshoots?
Were the phone calls conceding culpability by the military, or panicking at the news of the horrendous attack on sleeping children? Such answers would protect the US from accusations of repeating the “weapons of mass destruction” pretext for another Iraq-style illegal invasion.
With the civil war in Iraq 10 years later, it is evident that the invasion has created everything but peace.
Second, given the indicators that opposition groups possess sarin nerve gas, why are the US and its allies adamant that only the Government’s forces can perpetrate this large-scale attack?
In May, UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria investigator Carla del Ponte announced that “according to testimonies we have gathered, the rebels have used chemical weapons, making use of sarin gas”. That same month, Turkish authorities seized sarin gas and other ammunition from Jabhat al Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaida, being smuggled into Syria.
In June, the Syrian military seized two barrels of sarin gas from rebels in Hama. Such announcements challenge the narrative about the goodies and the baddies.
Third, how could a Government that denies culpability prove what it ostensibly did not do?
Despite the charge of guilty until proven innocent, which does not apply in the West, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad claims he has presented relevant evidence to the 20-strong team of UN chemical weapons inspectors in Syria, led by Swedish expert Professor Ake Sellstrom.
Although this “jury” is still out, they have been dismissed by the US and its allies, who have already slammed down the gavel and returned their verdict: only the Government is guilty as all red lines have been crossed.
Of course, people cannot be blamed for believing the verdict about morality and humanity, as the Syrian public relations machine has never really deemed it necessary to articulate a credible case to the world.
Hence, the loudest voices prevail and Syria has only its own arrogance to blame.
Fourth, if Syrian soldiers “inhaled poisonous gas” and were hospitalised after they found stocks of chemicals and gas masks in tunnels near the targeted Ghouta district, why would the US and its allies oppose the UN inspectors establishing all facts?
Syrian UN ambassador Bashar Ja’afari wrote to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon requesting that the team “investigate three heinous incidents” in the three days after last Wednesday’s attack. The UN team may reach a different verdict to that of the US.
What if they discover underground tunnels and a supply chain leading back to the multinational sponsors of this so-called “civil war”? Would the global focus shift from the “red lines” to the red faces of those who may have something to hide?
FIFTH, if US President wants the Syrian Government to receive only a “shot across the bow – it better not do it again”, could this self-appointed sheriff pour oil on fire? When a Syrian President has outlived all Western expectations, does treating him like a naughty boy really make sense?
It is likely the US President has put himself in a corner. This is the one-year anniversary of his promise to unleash his “contingency plans” if chemical weapons were utilised: “. . . a red line for us that would change my calculus.”
The red rag has been waved and he now has to charge, otherwise his pledge will evaporate into a hollow threat. Given Obama’s $250 million financial investment of “non-lethal weapons” to the Free Syrian Army, and its recent loss of ground as it competes for territory among a variety of jihadist groups, the desperation has intensified.
Obama needs to regain relevance in the Middle East post-Arab Spring. Jokes abound about backing the Islamists in Syria, but not in Egypt. Jokes abound about calling the Iraqi jihadists “insurgents” but the Syrian jihadists “rebels”. Jokes abound about the US arming terrorists while Syria fights them.
With Australia assuming the presidency of the UNSC in September, we have a historic opportunity to leverage a real “game-changer”.
Rather than relying on the smokescreens of secret intelligence, sabre rattling and counter threats, we could provide a civilised voice by moving to mandate the UN team to establish all the facts, above ground and underground, including culpability and supply chains.
Once guilt is established, the UNSC is in a better position to establish consensus and sanctions. This simple logic may smoke out what the hasty voices may be hiding.